Color by Numbers

The final results in New York’s 19th Congressional district have not been certified yet, so it’s still too early to compare the numbers, but the preliminary results are pretty revealing.

A whole lot of voters decided they couldn’t vote for either candidate.

Table 1 shows Sue Kelly vs. the Democrat from 1998 to 2006. Table 2 needs some work, but will eventually be similar, but broken down by county.

Candidate 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Kelly 104,467 145,532 121,129 175,401 88,939
Democrat 56,378 85,871 44,967 87,429 92,514
162,843 233,403 168,098 264,834 183,459

About 20,000 more people cast votes for either the Democrat or the Republican this year, compared to the previous two mid-term elections, in 1998 and 2002. However, none of those additional voters cast their ballot in favor of the Republican candidate. Assuming that all of those who voted for the Democrat in 2004 voted for the Democrat this year, the additional 5,085 votes for John Hall were all annoyed former supporters of Sue Kelly. The rest couldn’t bring themselves to vote for a Democrat and abstained.

County Candidate 2006 2004
John Hall (D) 19,796
Michael Jaliman (D) 17,666
Sue Kelly (R) 20,761 40,521
John Hall (D) 28,618
Michael Jaliman (D) 25,530
Sue Kelly (R) 28,525 56,028
John Hall (D) 13,448
Michael Jaliman (D) 11,609
Sue Kelly (R) 14,714 28,461
John Hall (D) 3,921
Michael Jaliman (D) 4,217
Sue Kelly (R) 4,187 7,612
John Hall (D) 28,741
Michael Jaliman (D) 28,407
Sue Kelly (R) 22,082 42,779

2 thoughts on “Color by Numbers

  1. I wouldn’t read too much into it. 2004 was a presidential election, 2006 was a mid-term. For real comparison, you should compare 2006 to 2002. Mid-term vs. mid-term. I bet you’ll see roughly the same order of magnitude in turnout.

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