In a BusinessWeek article on how Microsoft is causing SBC to fall behind schedule — thanks, Bill — the authors don’t question a key market assumption.
Most analysts believe Net-delivered programming is the future of TV since it potentially will allow providers to deliver many more channels than are currently available.
Most analysts are idiots. Is there such demand for millions more channels of the same old shit?
In other news, it looks like the AP has made the same error in their story on the FCC‘s changing the deadline for digital television equipment.
WASHINGTON (AP) — Television viewers who crave the crisp, clear pictures of digital TV got a boost Thursday when the government ordered manufacturers to include the technology in all midsize models by next spring.
Video afficionados already have digital equipment, so they have no bearing on this regulation.
The Federal Communications Commission voted 4-0 to require televisions with screens from 25 inches to 36 inches be digital-ready by March 1. That is four months earlier than the commission decreed in 2002.
The article notes that there is little market demand for the new equipment, because televisions without the digital tuners are, surprise, less expensive.
Why, one wonders, are we mandating the inclusion of digital broadcast tuners in television equipment when only
[a]bout 12 percent of U.S. households rely exclusively on over-the-air broadcast signals for their television, according to a CEA survey. Eighty-six percent have cable or satellite TV subscriptions, and 2 percent do not have any television.
Oh, that’s right, because
Once traditional analog signals end, households without a digital TV that rely on over-the-air signals would have to purchase a converter box to continue using their analog sets. Those boxes can run upward of $100.
So I should spend $400 on a new unit with the digital tuner when I can wait until the analog broadcast stops and then spend only $100? That doesn’t sound fiscally sound.
At least the Chairman recognizes some sort of market pressure.
FCC Chairman Kevin Martin said if Congress sets a deadline to end analog broadcasts, the resulting demand for converter boxes would drive down the price.
But then, here’s the kicker:
Congress also is considering a subsidy program to help offset converter costs for low-income households.
WHAT?! We’re going to pay the poor to watch TV?! Because we’ve artificially increased the cost of their boob tube?