I have to say that I was way ahead of the prediction curve on this, partly through desire and partly because it’s pretty fucking obvious just from looking at commute times that the ever-expanding suburb is an evolutionary dead-end. It will become a city or the people will move out. The people moving out is happening faster.
However, one must note that a finer analysis of the data needs to be done to see if there’s a comparable shuffle along the suburban-exurban-rural gradient toward locally urban areas, not just the larger cities. I suspect there is.
So, you ask, where do I recommend anyone buy in Dutchess County? Well, first I recommend you buy *my* house, but if you’re not that kind of buyer, look at the following, depending on where you work.
- Beacon, city of
- Poughkeepsie, city of
- Pawling, village of
- Rhinebeck/Rhinecliff, villages of
- Millbrook, village of
- Millerton, village of
There are other rather compact villages, but they don’t offer the amenities of those. You’ll have to travel a bit to find some items, or have them shipped to you. But if you don’t mind, try in no particular order
- Dover Plains
- Red Hook
- Hyde Park
Unfortunately, new housing stock is still being built in wide-open green spaces, and turnover in the smaller villages is slight. Best bets are Beacon and Poughkeepsie. Not only are there more properties for sale in those cities, but the prices there are lower due to racial and wealth discrimination, and “concerns” about the school systems.
* I should note that the house has much to recommend it, if you like this kind of house. It’s just that my preferences tend toward other architectural styles and smaller spaces. My personal favorite thing about the house is the location on a corner lot next to a pond. We see a lot of wildlife as a result. For a house in an exurban area, it’s very convenient to many things, most of which are within 15 minutes by foot: a pool, a park, a grocery, a library, several restaurants, an orchard, the elementary school, and my children’s grandparents. I just don’t like cars.